10
Jul
2006

A rescue for DD in the USA?

Major stock and bond futures have been trading in a range waiting for new input the last 4 or 5 days. It appears that everybody is waiting for the earnings season to start before we see some more action.
Good earnings might on a short term push stock prices higher. However, the outlook for long term is dim if one is looking at domestic demand and the "housing bubble & equity extraction for consumption" story. But one should not forget business investment. Many CEOs and CFOs don't see the future so pessimistic. They are in a hurry to take on additional debt to expand their businesses and use their balance sheets before rates increase even more thus lifting borrowing costs. Corporate debt is amounting to around $450bn, two thirds of the record 2000 level. That could be the factor holding economic growth up and leaves some room on the upside.
It is not the time to get bearish on stocks but to wait for further data input, as many central bankers used to say duing the past weeks.
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